Apple tablet predictions

As a dedicated Apple-user and Apple-watcher for the last 18 years, I've been reading all the 'tablet' predictions with probably too much interest. But, to my surprise, I don't think anyones' quite picked out what it's going to do. You'd think with this much noise someone would just randomly nail it. But... not that i've found.

So in the spirit of making stuff up so I can be proved wrong in a few days, here's my 'predictions'.

First of all, it's not going to be the iTablet. Think: iPod, iPhone, iMac. Apple doesn't go in for syllables. My money is on iPad. The other name I like is iBook, which is now free since all portable macs became 'macbooks' of some kind of or another. From a naming convention point of view we might see Apple's products fit into two lines: the 'mac' lines and the 'i' lines, with 'i' being multi-touch devices. That would mean renaming the iMac to something else! Which is nuts right? So quite an Apple thing to do. Like drastically redesigning the nano when it was the most popular mp3 player in the World. Or releasing a machine with no floppy drive. Or releasing a phone with no physical keyboard.

People are wondering what the 'killer app' will be. Something to justify its existence. To give you a reason to buy (and a reason to believe). Is it ebooks and magazines? Integration with some kind of home-media sharing system? But that conversation seems to keep being about 'features'. Which is the mistake most tech companies make, but not Apple, who excel at avoiding being sucked into a 'define my device in terms of its features' conversation.

Imho looking for a single killer app is thinking too small. The killer app will be...

... the user interface and user experience.

We've been using a folder / file metaphor since 1984. Back in the day that was ok: we didn't have many folders or files. But the static content, clear hierarchy days are gone. And so should be folders and files.

Expect an all-new UI / UX that, whilst it borrows from the iPhone, will be much grander in scope. Rather than the 'file' being the core building block, the UX will be based on core principles of content sources, and sharing. 'Your stuff' will be in there, but that will just be another content source. This 'stuff' will be filtered, sorted in a variety of ways. You won't have to name files, you won't have to create folders. There won't be folders. For most tasks there won't even be files. All that housekeeping will be under the hood. And as much as technically possible of it will be in the cloud.

Instead you'll be able to do 'tasks', or 'stuff' on it. Whatever stuff you want to do will be up to you, using a mix of Apples' apps, the 3rd party apps you chose (from the app store) and web-apps and websites. When doing that task, the content and tools you need to complete that task will be made available by the UI, in the approximate priority order you'll be likely to need them. Expect some very smart ways for those things to be presented to us: how that works will be the real innovation part of the product, and the thing Apple has been working on in its 'secret labs' for the last 4 years+

Remember: we used to have to name folders and files for the machine because it had no idea what they were. Now, with metadata-generating technology like spotlight, geolocation, and face-recognition, much more useful data about what the content is can be created without us having to worry about it. As someone who already uses spotlight to open 90% of my files and apps, and maintains a minimalist folder structure and an ISO date-based filenaming convention (both of which could be done by a machine), I know it can be done.

Apple will be aiming to invent the new 'large screen' UX paradigm for the next decade (or 3). The mouse / trackpad using computer will become relegated to specific tasks, though this will take time, and Apple will use multi-touch trackpads (as they are doing already) to convince us to make the transition, and get us used to the new way of interacting.

Expect Apple to have learned a lot from several years of multi-touch UI development: there'll be considerable refinements to what we are used to with the iPhone as it currently stands. And they'll have probably thrown a few things out. Remember the iPhone UI is now nearly 3 years old, Apple won't have been standing still in those 3 years. The changes to the UI that best fit smaller screens will be part of iPhone OS 4.0 which will also probably be previewed next week.

It'll have a sim-card slot as standard. You'll be able to buy it without the sim card and just use it as a wifi device if you like. But several carriers will be offering sim-cards for it, with unlimited data packages. With a sim-card you'll be able to use it as a phone: hands free or with a headset. Expect something clever with call routing and number sharing if you have both an iPhone and an iPad. Both will ring at the same time, and you can answer on whichever device you have closest.

A login option using the built-in camera and face-recognition will be included. All you'll have to do it look at the device to log in. I do wonder if this can be hacked by just holding up a photo of a person to the camera :) I suspect Apple have considered that, and I suspect they've not solved it but don't care too much for now.

It will also be a TV / movie watching device. For this to work it will need to stand up vertically. Although the back of the device will be smooth and flat, there will be some kind of pop-out stand that enables you to prop it up much like a picture frame. With this you'll be able to watch video, or use it as a phone or videophone.

A remote keyboard won't work because so much of the UI will be about multitouch... the mouse that goes with the keyboard won't work for the new UI.

Expect a decent graphics card, and a couple of game demos that show off what can be done with a large multi-touch screen. Perhaps a bundle of traditional board games will be included, which the tablet is perfect for. That and strategy / RTS. EA will probably demo. I'd bet on Command and Conquer, Sims, then Monopoly, Sudoku, and Trivial pursuit. What I'd like to see, but don't think will be ready yet, is using the iPad as a board and each person being able to use their iPhone / iPod touch as a personal screen, allowing card games, Scrabble, and the like.

That's it for now. There's a lot of obvious stuff too, but that's been said 100x times so i won't bother repeating it. If, like me, you're mildly obsessed with Apple product design (seems like half the world is these days), I recommend reading John Gruber's stuff: http://daringfireball.net/2010/01/tablet_musings